5 Things Microsoft should do at BUILD

Can you hear it? Can you hear it coming? Microsoft’s Windows developer conference is almost here. BUILD kicks off September 13 in Anaheim, Calif., and it’s going to be big, big, BIG. Microsoft will give Windows 8 its formal unveiling — everything else before was just movie previews. No new Windows version is really official until Microsoft presents it to developers. 70-640 Training .”

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But there’s more. Microsoft moved its annual Financial Analyst Meeting from July to September, coinciding with BUILD. It’s a colossally smart move. Wall Street geeks and technophobes will have chance to get caught up in the energy and enthusiasm of Windows 8 — and Windows Phone “Mango”, too. Microsoft really needs to energize analysts about these products and how they’re not so much the past but vital forces for the so-called post-PC era.

I present five things Microsoft should do next week. These aren’t recommendations, since it’s too close to BUILD for Microsoft to follow my lowly advice. It’s what I expect from Microsoft, if the Windows operating system teams hope to churn up the kind of positive reaction that can ignite developers and spread the fire to Windows enthusiasts and customers.

1. Give everyone Windows 8 slates. No developer, no financial analyst, no news media attendee should leave BUILD without an ultraportable or tablet PC running Windows 8 beta. Hell, Google gave participants to its I/O developer conference Samsung Chromebooks and Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablets. Microsoft should do even better.

There’s precedent. PDC 2009 developer attendees received free thin-and-light laptops designed by Microsoft and Acer. These portables were reference designs for developing apps. Microsoft should do at least the same next week.

“Windows 8 slates are great”. Now there’s a slogan.

2. Give all participants Mango smartphones. Why stop at ultrabooks or tablets? The first Mango smartphones are ready to ship, and Microsoft needs to rally developers. What? Microsoft should let its core use iPhones or Androids? Hell, no! Give developers phones and free cellular and data service for a year, if they personally use them. Make it hard to say no. Some wonky bloggers will scream “Bribery!” Frak them. Windows Phone is part of a larger Microsoft ecosystem of products and services (see #3).

3. Introduce a new far-reaching strategy: “Three screens and a cloud” Catchy, eh? For years Microsoft has talked about its three-screen and cloud strategies, separately and loosely connected. With the development and platform changes coming next week, Microsoft should formally and exactly tie together three screens and the cloud.

It’s clear that when looking at XNA, HTML5 and other technologies, Microsoft is rapidly unifying development around Windows 8, Windows Phone, Xbox and its cloud services. The vision must be communicated with absolute clarity and certainty next week, as much for financial analysts as anyone else. They have to see the vision of the Microsoft connected lifestyle. Too many of them drank the Apple Kool-Aid. Don’t believe that? Count how many analysts will be carrying iPhones and MacBook Airs or Pros next week.

4. Unveil a unified Windows marketplace, one place for apps of all varieties — cloud productivity, Internet Explorer 9, Windows Phone, Windows 7/8 and Xbox. Microsoft must present to developers and customers a connected business and personal lifestyle. A unified app store should be one of the experience’s pillars. Developers get the convenience and assured revenue confidence/piracy protection from a single, unified market for all Microsoft platforms.

5. Debut Metro OS. One of Windows 8’s most exciting new benefits is the tile-like Metro desktop UI, which is optimized for touchscreens. But behind it remains Windows legacy code for the seemingly zillions of enterprises and developers needing support for existing apps. Why not break out Metro instead, as a separate operating system? It would be much more than a Windows lite or embedded but much less than the legacy operating system.

Now that Windows will support ARM processors, Metro OS could be adapted for all kinds of touchscreen devices, everything from ATMs, to retail kiosks to tablets. Sure, Microsoft has Windows embedded, but Metro OS would be better because of the emphasis on touch. These third-party products could help sell Windows, too, because people would become used to the tile motif everywhere Microsoft Free MCTS Training and MCTS Online Training.

Metro OS also could extinguish Chrome OS. Google’s browser-based operating system has merit, but the motif is archaic in a touchscreen world. HTML5 already is core to Microsoft’s development approach for Metro UI. How hard would it really be for Metro OS to push Chrome OS into the waste bin?

Don’t underestimate work productivity credentials of consumer tablets

Tablets are almost always a supplemental device for SMBs, helping employees stay more closely connected to work issues. The downside is that few companies protect tablets adequately.

The use case for supporting tablet computers within a small or midsize business is increasingly compelling from a productivity standpoint. I can say this with my gut because I rely on one myself to pare down my email frequently throughout the weekends and in the evenings, but I also happen to have backup evidence from two different surveys that I skimmed over the Labor Day weekend.

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It makes me wonder how many thousands of those Hewlett-Packard TouchPads that have been on fire sale for the past few weeks have been purchased by small businesses that — given the rock-bottom purchase price of $99 — don’t really care what happens when they break down. I don’t want to suggest that they are “disposable” but they sure are cheap at that price, so what do you have to lose?

Here’s the thing: Even though the latest generation of tablets have been around roughly 18 months since the introduction of the Apple iPad, almost 40 percent of small and midsize businesses have begun to adopt them, according to annual research on technology adoption trends by CompTIA, a technology trade organization. The research, which was released in July 2011, listed the following as the Top 6 uses:

Light work while traveling (68 percent)
Capture notes during meetings (54 percent)
Making presentations, in lieu of laptop (52 percent)
Point of sale transactions (50 percent)
Demo a product (47 percent)
Communications, in lieu of a smartphone (44 percent)

The base for the CompTIA data is interviews with 390 small and midsize businesses planning to use tablets.
The CompTIA research dovetails with data from Staples Advantage (which sells technology to business accounts) showing that approximately 80 percent of tablet users report having a better “work/life balance” as a result of using a table. There were approximately 200 tablet users surveyed for these results. Here are the primary purchase motivators:

Increased productivity (60 percent)
Staying connected to colleagues or clients (40 percent)
Easy to use because of its portability (90 percent)

Almost all of those surveyed are using tablets in conjunction with another device, not as the primary device.
The downside of tablets, of course, is security. When I chatted with Ed Ludwigson, vice president and general manager of Staples Technology Solutions, he said only about one-third percent of tablet users apparently are taking adequate steps to back up the data on the device. Fewer than 15 percent of them have either encryption or antivirus software on the device, he said.
SMBs need to pay more attention to tablet access control; Staples advocates using cloud-based applications so that data actually isn’t downloaded to the device itself. That way, if it is lost, the potential damage is minimized, Ludwigson said.
The other downside to tablets, in my mind, is that you wind up working around the clock instead of during predefined hours. Then again, that’s probably what most SMBs hope. As someone who MUST keep up with email, I am willing to live what that tradeoff.
See also:

The 10 hottest tablets of 2011
Lenovo to launch the IdeaPad A1, a 7-inch Android tablet for $199
Has HP done a “New Coke” with WebOS and tablets?
HP TouchPad: The calm before… a really long calm
Here come the ultrabooks: Evolution or revolution?
When disaster strikes your PC
Technology is the ultimate SMB leveler and enabler

Google+ Tips: 4 Tools to Boost Your Social Networking Experience

Getting the hang of Google+ and looking for more? Check out these four Google+ tools that let you easily upload photos in bulk, find new people to follow, translate posts and more.

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CIO — While rumors continue to swirl about when the Google+ API will be released to developers, that’s not stopping some people from getting in on the Google+ action.

Whether you’re just starting out on Google+ or consider yourself an advanced user, more and more Google+ enhancements and add-ons are popping up across the Web.

Here’s a look at four new ones that do everything from streamlining bulk photo-uploading to helping you increase your network reach.

1. Google+ Photo Importer for iPhone
If you store your photos on multiple sites such as Facebook, Flickr, Instagram or Photobucket, there’s a new download available in the Apple App Store that lets you upload 100 photos in less than a minute to your Google+ account. This tool is especially handy if you plan on shifting your social networking focus to Google+.

The Google Plus Photo Importer by Dropico costs 99 cents, and while uploads I tested generally took longer than the advertised 60 seconds, it was still impressively fast.

10 Google+ tips for Beginners
Google+ Privacy: 5 Settings You Need to Know

2. Find People on Google+
Looking for more connections on Google+? While its own search feature only lets you find people by name, you can dig a bit deeper to find groups of people with certain characteristics at FindPeopleOnPlus.

Here, you can not only search for people by name, but you can also search by profession, location, relationship status, gender, education, employer, occupation and more, which makes growing your network and tailoring it to your needs a lot easier.

You can also choose to add yourself to its directory. This will keep your FindPeopleOnPlus profile updated and in-synch with your Google+ profile.

3. PlusClout
Akin to Klout.com, a site that measures your social media influence, PlusClout measures the influence a user has on Google+ and rates it from 0 to 100.

When you visit the site, PlusClout will ask you to insert your Google+ ID in order to generate your score. Your ID is the string of numbers that appear in the URL of your profile page.

PlusClout says that while its formula is still evolving, right now it calculates your number based on 15 million public Google+ profiles and items shared, such as posts, comments, +1s, the number of followers you have and the frequency and volume of information sharing.

You can also browse people with the highest PlusClout in categories such as bloggers, designers, entrepreneurs and the most-followed users on Google+. Click on any of these names and you will see their current PlusClout score, a graph of their score over the last five days, and websites associated with that person.
4. Google Translate for Google+

If you want to connect with people from around the world but find that language is a barrier, this is a must-download Google Chrome extension.

Google Translate for Google+ is a powerful tool that inserts a button into your Google+ streams, letting you quickly interpret a chunk of foreign text.

 

Survey: Value of the Cloud, Telecommuting Overstated

Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Cisco, take notice: Despite the near-constant hype about cloud computing services, most mid-market companies are still viewing cloud as a complement, not a replacement Microsoft 70-640 Training .”..

 

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SWC Technology Partners surveyed 210 mid-market IT and business leaders and found that cloud computing, at least for the mid-market and even more so in the enterprise, is still very early in its evolution. The survey also revealed a few surprises about the acceptance of telecommuting in the mid-market.

The disconnect between the hype of cloud computing and the actual implementation of cloud computing reared its head in the SWC survey. Only 3.7 percent of respondents said that their company has adopted a cloud computing solution for the entire company. And, over half (54.2 percent) of the respondents indicate that their company is not pursuing a single cloud computing initiative. Privacy and security (20.9 percent) were listed as the biggest concern when considering the cloud, followed by cost (9.8 percent).

“The technology industry can be rife with hype,” said Elliott Baretz, Vice President of SWC. “Most reasons for eschewing the cloud have nothing to do with technology. Privacy and compliance and legal issues are what are keeping businesses on the sidelines.”

Of the cloud services that are in production, Microsoft Exchange and SharePoint hold a comfortable lead, an indication that e-mail, productivity tools and document management are the top candidates to go to the cloud. Almost 65 percent of respondents using a cloud service are using Microsoft Exchange Online and 48 percent are using Microsoft SharePoint Online. Google is also in the running, with 24 percent opting for Google Cloud Services (i.e. Google Apps). Surprisingly, Amazon’s EC2 cloud service only captured 7.4 percent.

Baretz says that most cloud adoption is happening at the SMB and start-up level where the cost to benefit ratio favors the cloud. “These are the companies that need to save money on infrastructure costs the most,” he says.

The mid-market and enterprise remain cautious about controlling the hardware and software, but have not ruled out the cloud and see it as a complement to on-premise technology, according to the survey Microsoft Free MCTS Training and MCTS Online Training.

This comment from one respondent suggests as much:

“I don’t foresee the cloud as replacing the traditional use model we have now, but rather augmenting it. The cloud is a way to share data across many devices, enabling a user to work anywhere at any time in the most efficient manner. It doesn’t replace the need for high performing, well designed, and low latency local applications and end user support.”

As for the immediate future of the cloud, it will evolve as small companies turn into big ones and compliance regulations slowly adapt to the cloud model, says Baretz. “SMBs will grow and bring with them the cloud services that they started out with.”

In addition to low cloud adoption numbers, the survey revealed another surprise: the acceptance and practice of telecommuting has remained flat over the past two years.

Samsung, Nvidia to demo quad-core Windows 8 tablet

Samsung, Nvidia and Microsoft are on tap to show off a Windows 8 quad core tablet next week.

Nvidia has been bubbling with optimism this week and there may be a good reason for it: The company next week is on tap to demonstrate its quad-core Kal-El chip on a Microsoft Windows 8 tablet.

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We’re hearing in multiple places that a Windows 8 tablet run by Kal-El will make an appearance at the Build conference next week. Samsung, Nvidia and Microsoft will introduce the Windows 8 tablet in a demo. These sources also indicate that a Samsung tablet will be the first Microsoft device with Kal-El. The demonstration would also indicate that Samsung plans to make a Windows 8 tablet. Reports surfaced in the Korea Economic Daily.

What’s unclear is when this Windows 8-Kal-El creation will be publicly available. Our sources are touting the first Microsoft tablet with Kal-El, but the timing doesn’t quite add up. Kal-El will be released in the third quarter, but Windows 8 won’t be released to manufacturing until April 2012 at the earliest.

Windows 8 bits are expected to be handed out to developers next week.

Given those moving parts, it’s likely that Kal-El will power the demo Windows 8 unit to be claimed as a first. But Nvidia’s quad core chip will run on Android in a tablet you can actually buy later this year. As Mary Jo Foley noted, Microsoft showed off a quad-core Windows slate at TechEd New Zealand last month.

Another option is that a Windows 7 tablet will be handed to developers at Build, but it can be upgraded to Windows 8.

Add it up and Nvidia’s optimism this week—the company upped its fiscal 2013 outlook and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang has been confident—may be warranted because it’s betting on two tablet horses in Android and Windows 8.

A few points to note:

If Samsung is on the Windows 8 tablet bandwagon it offer some serious Android diversification. Given Samsung’s patent lawsuits with Apple, a Microsoft option could deliver returns just based on legal costs.
Nvidia’s plan to trump Qualcomm on quad-core market share may rest with Microsoft. Analysts have been skeptical about Nvidia’s optimism largely because Android tablets haven’t become consumer hits. If Nvidia has all of its non-iPad bases covered its goal to have 70 percent market share in non-Apple tablets looks more realistic.

TechRepublic’s Jason Hiner, Mary Jo Foley and ZDNet UK’s Rupert Goodwins contributed to this report.

More Nvidia:

Nvidia’s Tegra weak spot: An assumption Android tablets take off
CNET: Nvidia CEO sees tenfold growth in mobile-chip biz

Build previews:

Let’s help Microsoft name Windows 8
Hyper-V to be in Windows 8 client, Microsoft acknowledges officially
Ten watchwords for Microsoft’s Windows 8 conference
Microsoft’s Windows chief: Media Center will be part of Windows 8
Intel: We’ll win our fair share vs. ARM even with Windows 8
CNET: Samsung to show off Windows 8 tablet, report says

Intel Joins the Windows 8 Developer Push

IDF takes place at the same time as BUILD, and the Wintel alliance (for now) is linking arms to reach out to developers Microsoft 70-640 Training .”.

If you’re going to Intel’s Developer Forum next week and want to know what’s up with Windows 8, good news: you don’t have to jet down to Anaheim, Microsoft has got you covered at IDF, too.

 

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As we all know, the Microsoft BUILD conference takes place next week in Anaheim, California (just across the street from Disneyland). BUILD is a rollup of PDC and WinHEC, so it’s the show for developers to attend. At the same time, Intel is hosting the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) in San Francisco.

This may present a quandary for some people, but thankfully, Microsoft and Intel are coordinating this rather well. For those of you attending IDF, you can get yourself at least some info on Windows 8. As for a beta, well, we still don’t know if one will come out at BUILD (although I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen). The most likely scenario is that you can register to get the beta while at IDF.

The information comes courtesy of Intel’s IDF site, which lists a few notable sessions involving Microsoft (click on the Technical Session Catalog and search for Microsoft). The biggest one comes on Wednesday, where Microsoft will deliver a session on Windows 8 called “Microsoft Windows 8 on Intel Architecture.” This session will be the look at Windows 8 and discuss “the work both companies are undertaking to deliver this new compute experience.”

Most of the sessions are reserved for Thursday, the last day of IDF. I’ve seen how attendance falls off on day 3 of IDF and question whether that’s a good idea, but maybe it was all they had Microsoft Free MCTS Training and MCTS Online Training.

The two companies will host a session called “Hot Topic Q&A: Intel and Microsoft – Windows 8.” Microsoft will have three representatives, Intel will have two engineers.

Another session on Thursday will be “Microsoft Windows Platform Evolution and UEFI Requirements.” UEFI stands for Unified Extensible Firmware Interface and will finally replace the creaky old BIOS firmware that has been in PCs for more than 30 years. The session will talk about the latest Windows 8 platform requirements including UEFI boot and security features.

The final session on Thursday will be “Integrating Intel Platform Capabilities on Microsoft Windows Security Architecture.” Intel will detail improvements in the Windows security architecture and how Intel hardware will work with the next-generation of Windows.

Sure sounds like a beta is coming, doesn’t it?

Measuring the success of Ed Tech: Not all about test scores

Sometimes, technology gets thrown at struggling schools as a panacea for a variety of ills with predictably bad results. How should we be measuring those results, though, in the schools that are doing it right?

The New York Times ran a feature on Saturday called “In Classroom of Future, Stagnant Scores”. The article is part of a series called “Grading the Digital School” and asked some tough questions about whether technology in schools can actually improve student achievement. Most significantly, it pointed to the lack of hard data around the quantifiable success of investing in technology-rich schools. While we have a responsibility to ensure that technology is adding value in schools, I’m inclined to believe that the lack of supporting data is the result of poor measures rather than poor results.

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As noted in the article,

Since 2005, scores in reading and math have stagnated in Kyrene [the Arizona school district featured as an example of a technology-rich environment], even as statewide scores have risen.

To be sure, test scores can go up or down for many reasons. But to many education experts, something is not adding up — here and across the country. In a nutshell: schools are spending billions on technology, even as they cut budgets and lay off teachers, with little proof that this approach is improving basic learning.

Let me start by saying that I’ve seen too many technology implementations in schools that add no real educational value, but take a nice dent out of taxpayer wallets. There are plenty of ways to go about making a school “technology-rich” that actually take away from the real business of learning. When rollouts are half-hearted, teachers and parents don’t completely embrace the approach, students and teachers lack accountability, and teachers aren’t provided with the right training and coaching, then schools end up buying a lot of expensive toys. eSchool News recently highlighted schools in New Mexico that are saddled with hefty repair bills and failing, aging, abused computers from their 1:1 efforts.

I am not in the give-everyone-computers-and-watch-them-succeed camp.

However, I wouldn’t be in the business of Ed Tech if I didn’t think that the potential existed for kids to learn in new, engaging ways that prepared them for real-world challenges and managed to better differentiate instruction so that every student could be better served in our public schools. What’s happening in a district like Kyrene where everything seems to be happening the way educational technologists believe it should? Kyrene has solid community investment, good teacher buy-in, and progressive techniques. Why aren’t standardized test scores following?

On counterpoint in the article sounded fairly familiar:

Karen Cator, director of the office of educational technology in the United States Department of Education, said standardized test scores were an inadequate measure of the value of technology in schools. Ms. Cator, a former executive at Apple Computer, said that better measurement tools were needed but, in the meantime, schools knew what students needed.

It would be nice to think that schools know what kids need, but we also need to find ways to measure the more intangible skills that students acquire using technology in relevant and (I believe) powerful ways. We see technology breaking down barriers to collaboration, improving writing and criticism, providing software that differentiates instruction and gives real-time feedback to teachers on student strengths and weaknesses, and allowing teachers to guide students through rich and varied resources. Standardized tests, all too often, measure students’ abilities to take tests.

Some of the best standardized tests get at students’ critical reasoning skills and their ability to tease out abstract concepts from real-world problems. Even these, though, may not be aligned with the way students are learning, particularly in more constructivist settings where technology enables a different kind of creativity. And even in states with tests widely acknowledged as “good”, most students will see short-term bumps when schools teach to the test.

Real learning, the sort that many hope will happen in technology-rich environments, is rare when curricula are closely aligned with test materials. Don’t get me wrong – Alignment is the name of the game and tests should assess what students are learning. Too frequently, though, schools tweak and rework their curricula based on minute analyses of yearly test items. Those schools that delve deeply into subjects may find their scores for the year distinctly lacking, even if their students are richer for the deep dive. Imagine, for example, a school-wide, year-long focus on statistics and data analysis, where students use spreadsheets, scientific probes, online surveys and other tools to really explore the world around them. Invariably, scores relating to measurement, statistics, expository writing, and reporting will improve overall. However, there won’t be time that year to teach 27 other standards in English and math, no matter how many important skills and concepts students take with them.

The tests will also not measure the ability of students to manage projects independently or search the web for research materials, both of which would have been key outcomes of the project-oriented learning I described above.

Yes, we need better tests. And we need data about the real value of tech in the classroom. But more than that, we need research into pedagogy that supports the use of tech in the classroom. We need students to focus on developing portfolios rather than racking up test scores. We need students to know how to tackle a project when they encounter one (and not just Google “statistics” but really manage resources and develop and implement a plan). And we need teachers to not just have a day of professional development before school starts on how to have kids use Google Docs; they need ongoing coaching from experts in the field to ensure that all of these technology investments are adding real value, even if the tests left over from NCLB don’t have the chops to assess that value.

Hackers stole Google SSL certificate, Dutch firm admits

Chrome and Firefox face updates, Microsoft blacklists firm’s certs in Windows 7 and Vista, but not XP

Computerworld – The Dutch company that issued a rogue digital certificate for all Google Internet domains said today that its network had been hacked last month Microsoft 70-640 Training .”

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DigiNotar, a Dutch certificate authority (CA) that was acquired earlier this year by Chicago-based Vasco, said it was unaware of the breach for more than a week and had overlooked the in-the-wild Google certificate for over a month.

Multiple SSL (secure socket layer) certificates were stolen in the July hack, said DigiNotar.

“On July 19, 2011, DigiNotar detected an intrusion into its Certificate Authority (CA) infrastructure, which resulted in the fraudulent issuance of public key certificate requests for a number of domains, including Google.com,” the company said in a statement on Tuesday.

“At that time, an external security audit concluded that all fraudulently issued certificates were revoked. Recently, it was discovered that at least one fraudulent certificate had not been revoked at the time,” said DigiNotar, referring to the certificate valid for all Google properties.

The company did not provide any additional information about the intrusion, such as the origin of the attack or the number of certificates that had been issued to the intruders. DigiNotar has not replied to Computerworld’s questions.

Today, however, a DigiNotar spokesman told Jeremy Kirk of the IDG News Service — like Computerworld, part of IDG — that “several dozen” certificates had been generated by the hackers.

DigiNotar’s timeline shows that the company was unaware of the hack for over a week: The Google certificate was issued July 10, according to information posted to Pastebin.com last Saturday. DigiNotar did not revoke the Google certificate until Monday, Aug. 29.

Fraudulently-acquired certificates are dangerous because they can be used by criminals to conduct “man-in-the-middle” attacks targeting users of legitimate online services and websites. The fake Google certificate, for example, was used by attackers to target Iranian users of the Mountain View, Calif.-based search giant’s services, Google said late Monday.

The DigiNotar hack was the second breach of a certificate-issuing firm since March, when Comodo admitted that hackers had used an account assigned to a company partner in southern Europe.to acquire nine certificates for some of the Web’s biggest sites, including Google and Gmail, Microsoft, Skype and Yahoo Microsoft Free MCTS Training and MCTS Online Training.

Initially, Comodo argued that Iran’s government may have been involved in the theft. Days later, however, a solo Iranian hacker claimed responsibility for stealing the SSL certificates.

On Monday, Google pointed a finger at Iran in the DigiNotar hack, saying that attacks using the ill-gotten certificate had targeted Iranian users.

Over the past 24 hours, Google, Microsoft and Mozilla have taken steps to block the rogue certificate.

Google will update Chrome “very soon,” said a company spokesman today, to block all DigiNotar-issued certificates “while investigations continue.”

Microsoft’s 5 biggest weaknesses 2

Search, mobile devices, the Web and even the desktop represent challenges for Redmond
*There are more than 45,000 registered Windows Phone developers.

*Customers have access to nearly 30,000 apps and games on Windows Phone Marketplace, with an average of 100 added each day Microsoft 70-640 Training .”
4. The desktop

 

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Arguing that Windows is a weakness takes some work. Really, it is a potential weakness, but an important one because it is also Microsoft’s greatest strength. The 80% to 90% market share Windows holds on desktops and laptops is the reason Microsoft has direct access to most of the personal computing users on Earth, so even small percentage drops in sales are problematic. Windows 7 has sold more than 400 million copies, but revenue declined 2% in the fiscal year that ended June 30.

While Windows 8 will be optimized for both PCs and tablets, Microsoft is holding off on any big announcements regarding the next OS until the BUILD conference in mid-September.

“With a $32 billion chunk of Microsoft’s business (Windows Client and Office combined) dependent upon Windows 8’s long-term success, it is a fair statement that Windows 8 may well be one of the biggest bets any company has made in a long time,” Gillen writes in a new IDC paper titled “Getting Back in the Game: Can Windows 8 Reverse Microsoft’s Position?”

There have been various arguments that the PC is dead, but a more accurate description comes from 41-year IBM veteran Irving Wladawsky-Berger, who says the PC is the new mainframe: still profitable, but no longer the center of innovation.

Innovation is happening in cloud computing, and smartphones and tablets. With Microsoft struggling to gain any foothold in mobile devices, the biggest immediate danger to the Windows franchise is that smartphone and tablet buyers will delay the purchases of their next PCs.

It’s hard to imagine large segments of the population doing without PCs entirely, but someone who spends hours each day with a smartphone or tablet might wait five to seven years to buy a new desktop or laptop. The 10-year-old Windows XP is still the most widely used version of Windows, after all. And as more people buy Androids, iPhones and iPads, Microsoft’s share of all Internet-connected devices will erode.

“All the competitors would like to have you think that next year Microsoft hits the wall and the PC business is cut in half,” Gillen says. “That is not what’s going to happen. What is happening is we have a proliferation of other devices that are competing with Windows for mindshare. But at the end of the day, users, especially business users, need PCs.”

Microsoft should position the PC as the hub for all other devices to connect to, from phones to television sets. The company should also consider building more software for non-Microsoft platforms, if it wants users to interact with Microsoft software no matter which device they are using. One key change Microsoft is embracing is the ARM chip architecture, popular in mobile devices and which Windows will now support in addition to Intel x86 processors.

One rumor is that Microsoft and hardware partners will build an ARM-powered laptop with a removable screen that becomes a tablet when separated from the keyboard. One Microsoft advantage is that all the rich applications running on Windows will be available to tablets. But Microsoft will need a user interface that is a compelling alternative to the simplicity of the iPad, and provide strong battery life and quick if not instant startup time Microsoft Free MCTS Training and MCTS Online Training..